Relationships can hurt, help candidate

Calculated risks are a big part of politics. And in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District, the candidates calculate differently in the risky relationship with figures in one's own party. Congressman Joe Donnelly, the Democratic incumbent, is distancing himself from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, with whom he and other Blue Dog moderates long have had differences, and even from President Obama, supported by Donnelly for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

Republican challenger Jackie Walorski is playing up her endorsement by Sarah Palin, whose unfavorable rating in a national poll this month was almost exactly as dismal as Pelosi's. Walorski also campaigned with former Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose negatives were stronger than positives in a poll on presidential prospects.

Both candidates have reasons. Good reasons for seeking votes as they do. Each risks losing some support, too, in their calculations of embracing or distancing.

Donnelly seeks the middle ground, while risking loss of enthusiasm from the already dispirited Democratic base.

Walorski seeks to keep up the enthusiasm in an already energized Republican base, while risking loss of support in that middle ground if she appears to be too partisan.

Some disgruntled progressive Democrats say Donnelly already has lost potential campaign contributions.

A former Democratic nominee for other offices says that distancing from Pelosi was one thing but from the president was going too far, far enough that the contribution made to Donnelly in his past campaigns won't be made this time.

His hard line on immigration policy and his vote against the "cap and trade" environmental bill also displeased those in the progressive wing.

Although Donnelly finally voted for the health care reform bill, some of the progressives who wanted a stronger measure thought Blue Dogs weakened it and Donnelly delayed and imperiled it by withholding support until the president promised an executive order prohibiting any abortion funding.

However, Donnelly, who gets it from right and left, is hammered in negative TV spots as a supporter of a Pelosi-Obama agenda and for voting for the health care bill. The bill isn't very popular. Pelosi is very unpopular. And the president's approval ratings sag.

Donnelly's TV ad in response featured a photo of Pelosi, Obama and House Republican Leader John Boehner and Donnelly's narration: "That may not be what the Washington crowd wants, but I don't work for them. I work for you."

The appeal is to independent voters and moderates in both parties. He campaigns as an independent more concerned with the district than with national politics.

Talk of a middle-ground approach, however, isn't exactly what excites the Democratic base to get to the polls.

Walorski, meanwhile, could lose some of that advantage from Democratic apathy if the Palin endorsement and campaigning with Gingrich makes her appear highly partisan, like them. That's not an image that attracts voters in the middle ground, the ground Donnelly wants to hold.

And Walorski's comments at tea party events, while rallying her base, are used by the Donnelly campaign to convince those disgruntled Democrats to get to the polls and vote against Walorski, even if they aren't thrilled with Donnelly's middle ground.

Female voters will be crucial.

A CBS poll finds women less enthused than men about voting in the congressional elections. Men were found to be angrier and more motivated to get to the polls. This is terrible news for Democrats. Women, since the days of Ronald Reagan, have tended to vote more Dem-ocratic than men. They also have outnumbered men in getting out to vote.

Polls from the 2008 election and now show that women are more critical of Palin than are male voters. So, will Palin's endorsement hurt Walorski with women?

For sure, the endorsement helps Walorski with fundraising, vital for the TV wars. Gingrich's appearance and fundraising events in the district with Boehner and Mike Huckabee helped Walorski get adequate funding.

Donnelly also has adequate funding, but he can't raise even more the way Walorski did with political figures with "House speaker" in their introductions — former Speaker Gingrich and Boehner, who hopes to be the next speaker. Donnelly won't bring in the present speaker. Nor would he want many other Dem-ocrats on the national scene, even if they could raise big bucks.